AFC South Week 5 Preview – Injury reports, refs, passing charts, stats
In this AFC South Week 5 Preview we cover the Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots*, Tennessee Titans
Texans (1-3) vs Cowboys (1-3)
Referee Crew
| Yrs | 2017 crew | College | Occupation | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 52 | Bill Vinovich | 13 | San Diego | accountant, former NFL officiating supervisor | |
| U | 102 | Bruce Stritesky | 13 | * | Embry Riddle | airline pilot |
| DJ | 90 | Mike Spanier‡ | 20 | Parry | St Cloud State | middle school principal |
| LJ | 9 | Mark Perlman | 18 | * | Salem | teacher† |
| FJ | 31 | Mearl Robinson | 2 | Cheffers | Air Force | instructor |
| SJ | 60 | Gary Cavaletto | 16 | * | Hancock | general manager, agricultural operations |
| BJ | 17 | Steve Patrick | 5 | Blakeman | Jacksonville State | owner, supply company |
|
||||||
The mediocre vs the mediocre. What’s to say about this game other than whichever QB shows up, wins? Now that four games have passed, there”s enough game film for defenses (and offenses) to make statements. Here on out is when (barring injuries) we see team identities – what they do well and not too well.
Which brings me to the Texans defense who are ranked 20th. What is going on there? Dallas is fourth. That’s the tale here. Dak Prescott has become the Alex Smith of yesteryear, but he will face a team that gives up 8.1 yards a pass and 2.75 TDs a game. 11 ELEVEN TDs so far.
In comparison, Dallas has surrounded 5 TDs, 7.5 yards a pass. This makes the task for Deshaun Watson and his stable of good receivers a little tougher than the other teams they’ve faced. When it comes to the run game, both teams are fairly close in yards allowed per carry, but Dallas has Zeke the Freak.
However, while the boys are ranked third in rushing yards, they’ve only scored 2 TDs. Considering the Texans have only given up 1, this is where Houston can win. Elliot is their best player – take him out and Prescott collapses. We’ve seen it enough times to know that without Zeke, the Cowboys offense stalls out.
When it comes to passing TD’s, Dallas is down in the bottom – only Denver, Arizona and Buffalo is worse.
Dak is still hesitant to throw beyond 10 yards. Lots of disturbing red areas.
I can’t help but wonder if Houston, as awful as they are against the pass, are better to give them some run? Then swap in the red zone. Better a little movement from rushing, than a lot from passing.
These teams are evenly matched, but for opposite reasons. Dallas can run the ball, throwing? Nah. Watson has thrown 7 TDs, plus he’s gotten a little more accurate as the weeks go by. Most likely due to getting back into a rhythm and getting over a lingering fear of injury.
With Houston being ranked evenly with Dallas in rushing TD’s, but tons better in passing, the edge goes to the Texans pulling off another win based on quarterbacking. With his back against the wall last week, Watson rose to the occasion to pull of an overtime victory.
Titans (3-1) vs Bills (1-3)
Referee Crew
| Yrs | 2017 crew | College | Occupation | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 99 | Tony Corrente | 24 | Cal State-Fullerton | retired educator | |
| U | 76 | Alan Eck | 3 | * | Bloomsburg State | tax manager |
| DJ | 13 | Patrick Turner | 5 | * | Cal State-Long Beach | plant manager |
| LJ | 47 | Tim Podraza | 11 | Morelli | Nebraska | banker |
| FJ | 7 | Keith Washington | 11 | Parry | Virginia Military Institute | program financial analyst |
| SJ | 25 | Ryan Dickson | 2 | * | Utah | commercial real estate developer |
| BJ | 30 | Todd Prukop | 10 | * | Cal State-Fullerton | medical sales representative |
|
||||||
Rookie QB vs good defense, not a match-up Buffalo wants to see. The Bills are a mess right now and only a little bit goes to QBing because the entire team looks sloppy.
This is one of those games where you want to say the Titans should mop the floor in upper NY, but if Josh Allen had any kind of time to throw the ball, they could pull off a win because their run game isn’t bad. But, boy these charts are sad.
Maybe they should use him like a Timmy Tebow because his legs seem more valuable, at this time, than his arm.
However, Tennessee hasn’t allowed any rushing scores. They’re giving up yards, but not points. Against the pass, they’re average in yards, but have allowed six TD’s. The Bills aren’t too bad against the pass and if they were to have played the Titans a week or more ago, they’d beaten a wounded Mariota.
There’s not much about Tennessee that jumps out on paper, and watching them is the same, but they make plays when they need to. Timing is everything. That’s the one feature about them – they’re like watching hockey. A whole lot of nothing for 3 periods and then the closing minutes come, and a flurry of action happens.
This a match-up where it’s to find one or two items that you can point to and say – this is a stat to win this. Which is why stats only tell half the story.
Buffalo is the same fore defense, mired in the middle for total defense, passing and rushing, too. Average. Both teams are in the bottom for their offenses, except the Titans have a much better running game. This game will be a snooze fest with dueling QB’s running around to avoid sacks.
Jaguars (3-1) vs Chiefs (4-0)
Referee Crew (and again the Jags get a younger crew which we’ve seen this season make some very bad calls)
| Yrs | 2017 crew | College | Occupation | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 122 | Brad Allen | 5 | Pembroke State | non-profit CEO† | |
| U | 71 | Ruben Fowler | 13 | Triplette | Huston-Tillotson | retired firefighter |
| DJ | 48 | Jim Mello | 15 | * | Northeastern | facilities manager |
| LJ | 40 | Brian Bolinger | 2 | * | Indiana State | corporate safety director |
| FJ | 33 | Steve Zimmer | 22 | Wrolstad | Hofstra | attorney |
| SJ | 1 | Scott Novak | 5 | Coleman | Phoenix | sales manager† |
| BJ | 111 | Terrence Miles | 11 | Coleman | Arizona State | quality control manager† |
|
||||||
I wrote an editorial about this game, if you want more analysis, click here.
This could be a game for the ages or a blow out. Much is said about Patrick Mahones, but he hasn’t faced a secondary remotely close to the Jag’s. Their speed and athleticism is a match for KC’s offensive weapons. Tashaun Gibson has been tabled a TE whisperer in how he manages to shut them down.
For most teams with top notch TE’s, like Kansas City’s, defenses need to double team them. So far, that’s not been the case for Jacksonville. If Jalen Ramsey plays man vs Tyreek Hill (even in the slot), he and Gip could shut down an aerial attack. Kareem Hunt is facing a team that has allowed too many break-out runs and that’s where I think KC has the advantage. In that category.
However, KC is bad on defense. Dead last in allowing yards per the run, so while Leonard Fournette is out, TJ Yeldon and Cory Grant could have a day. They’re 31st in allowing passing yards.
Borltes may end up doing a lot of running this game because that’s the one area KC isn’t bad at. If Blake has any time to throw, he could have a very good day. But that’s key because the Oline has dictated his play. Mediocre, good, bad, very good. The chocolates he picks out of the box will come to the wrapping around him.
Denver laid out the blueprint for how to beat KC and would’ve if they had a better QB (or a call go for them). While Blake Borltes isn’t superman, he has thrown 7 TDs and is among the least sacked QB’s because he can elude pressure and isn’t bad stepping up in the pocket.
Not sure he’s given the credit for extending plays he has. When you’re only sacked three times and in games where only one of your OLine from week 1 is in the game, you’re doing something right.
Obviously, Mahones has been dynamite, but when he faced a good defense, his TD’s sure changed. His completions dropped to 62% and his legs made his lone TD. As did the team’s points. Know who’s allowed only 164 passing yards per game and a total of 3 passing TD’s? They wear teal and black.
We Jags fans know Bortles isn’t (insert your GOAT QB), but he’s in the middle and doesn’t have a star wide receiver or tight end. plus the lone star (Fournette) is OUT. He has a rag tag group and somehow is 3-1, making him a gamer.
What’s to note is against a defense with slower backs (NE*) he lit it up. Considering that KC is giving up 451.8 yards a game (328 passing) and 28.8 points (13 passing), Bortles is looking at a chance for a few TD’s which will be the key. He doesn’t need to keep pace with empty passing yards, just make the ones in the red zone, count.
One last note – we’ve seen very little of full back Tommy Bohanon. This could be the game he makes an appearance because teams have forgotten about him. With Fournette out, his blocking can be beneficial, but beyond that, he can catch in the end zone.
