A Battle Royale is about to go down and the Jaguars can feast on Kermit if they…

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chief game preview

Everyone knows the Chiefs are on a passing roll, but have a poor defense. However, Denver’s defense kept them to 27 points and if their QB had made one simple throw at the end, would have won.

That’s important for two reasons. First, Denver’s total defense is ranked 16th, but 18th against the pass. That’s a big difference between the Broncos and Jags. Denver’s key was getting in Mahones’ face, not so much from pass coverage, an area Jax is tops at.

Second reason the 27-24 score matters: Denver’s total offense is ranked 15th, but their passing offense is 19th with Keenum having a Rating ranked 29th (last TD pass was week 1). Bortles rating is 18th, the Jaguars total offense at 16th. Denver’s rushing attack is 2nd and Jax is 12th.

I bring this up because KC couldn’t stop the run (141 yards/2 TDS to backs) and they allowed a bottom ranked QB to throw 245 yards. KC total defense is ranked 26th, 30th against the pass allowing an average 7.9 yards a throw and eight passing TD’s. That’s kind of pitiful.

So, if Blake Bortles‘ offense just plays their average game and their defense plays theirs – the Jaguars should win. No craziness needed – just be themselves. Their average rush is 4.3 yards, while KC allows 5.7 – dead last in stopping the run.

Bortles’ average yards per pass is 7.3. KC allows 7.9, ranking 30th. Just based on stats, Jacksonville’s receivers and running backs should have a good day.

Sorry, Pat but this is laugh out loud funny. (except the stolen FSU War Chant)

Jacksonville should NOT defer

Most of the time when a team wins the coin toss, they defer. If Jacksonville wins it, I think they shouldn’t. When the Jaguars score a touchdown first in a game, good things happen – like wins. Not to mention, it’ll help quiet the noise for a bit.

Going first also sends a message – we trust our offense and your defense stinks. Both of these should hold true. In addition, when Jax marches down the field this season, they’ve been burning a lot of clock.

Best way to keep Patrick Mahones off the field and keep the defense fresh is to dink and dunk. Bortles and T.J. Yeldonhave been fairly good at mixing things up which helps in that goal. Yes, we’d love to see aggressive play-calling, which often equates to an aerial attack, but that can still be accomplished with constant short passes.

If Jacksonville can put a TD up first, it’ll change how the Chiefs play because now they’re in catch-up mode. Best way is take the ball first and march down the field. While some may say having the ball first after half-time is the way to go, the Jags have been flat in third quarters.

Jacksonville has scored one TD in the 3rd Quarter, but only allowed 1.

The one TD Jax scored when receiving the ball after the half, was late in the third on  a break out run by Donte Moncrief; therefore, I don’t see an advantage of deferring. By contrast, the defense has come out of the locker room in the 3rd quarter, firing on all cylinders and haven’t allowed a TD on a first possession, yet.

Against the Giants, a FG was allowed after a couple of penalties on their first possession of the 3rd. Against the Titans, a FG was allowed first possession because of penalties. A TD was given up in the third to the Patriots*, after a fumble by our rookie WR. Do you see a theme, here? Against the Jets’ first drive, the defense got a safety. Not until late in the 3rd did the Jets kick a FG.

This season, winning the coin toss hasn’t mattered.

We know our identity and it’s not an aerial attack team – it’s smash mouth defense. Mahones has three tools to use: Hill, Hunt and Kelce. If Gibson can eliminate Travis Kelce like he did Gronk, that’s a huge (literally) target removed.

When Jalen Ramsey dismissed Gronk, although they didn’t match-up all that much, it set a precedent. He’s now done the same to Tyrek Hill. The question may not be between those two, but how Tyler Patmon does since Hill often lines up as a slot. He did well last week, but it was the Jets.

The key may be for the CBs to play hard press, jam the receivers at the line disrupting the timing, but keep Barry Church high. Pressing the wide receivers usually means the QB has to hold the ball a touch longer to find an open guy and that should be when Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue bookend Patrick Mahones and meet in the middle for a for a Kermit sandwich. Denver almost made it work.

A collision is coming

The Jags allow a paltry 5.8 per pass and only have given up 3 passing TDs, QB’s have a 81.3 rating against them. Completion rate is 60.6%, 5th best. Mahones is averaging 8.7 per pass with a completion rate of 65.2%. Obviously, we have a collision coming since Pat’s biggest asset is his receivers making 14 TD’s. That’s the bottom line. Stop them, stop him.

KC rushing gets an average of 4.3 per carry, with 4 TDs and 113 yards a game. Meanwhile, Jax gets 4.3, 113.5. The flaw is only 1 TD and to me that lack of scoring points to Leonard Fournette – big power back who can muscle his way into the EZ is sorely missed.

Here’s the thing about Bortles (and most any QB), give him 2.8-3 seconds and he can deliver the ball. He needs a touch longer because his release isn’t quick due to his wind-up. So, this game may boil down to the Oline. Keep Ford and Houston off him.

The one area KC and Jax are equal is sacks- tied at 12th with 10. That’s where the walking wounded Oline must prevail. Luckily, Bortles can and does scramble well.

When he’s rushed, he throws a lot of ducks – slow and wobbly. This may be why the receivers go on drop runs. It’s tough catching a ball that comes in sideways, especially when you’re on the move. Blake needs to throw better spirals to help them out, that can occur if he has time.

Biggest Key

The biggest key though is PENALTIES. The Jags can’t be giving away 70 yards of flags, especially when they hand offenses points. 11-119 vs NYG, 7-71 vs NE, 8-75 vs Titans and 9-89 vs the Jets = 354 YARDS IN PENALTIES, 88.5 A GAME (avg)

My keys for winning

  • Defer
  • Get the ball first and score, changing how KC may attack.
  • take away Kelce, Mahones’ safety net
  • press the receivers so Mahones has to hold the ball enabling the ends to rattle him
  • stop with the flags

No Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chief game preview can be complete without saying – don’t turn the ball over. These sloppy mistakes lost the game to the Titans and kept shut-outs from occurring. The last thing KC needs is extra chances to score. Not to mention, the Jaguars defense needs to stay fresh, they can’t do that if the offense is giving the Chiefs the ball.

Jags win and feast on Frog Legs (yum)

 

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