Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans are featured in this AFCS Week 12 Scouting Report – Injury Reports, Stats, Passing Charts, Referee Crews, TV Viewing.
Mathematically, Jacksonville still has a chance to make the play-offs (don’t laugh), so until they’re eliminated, we’re going to treat this as a normal week. Once they do get the ax, then we’ll switch to 2019 and draft watch mode.
The first game up is of course the Jags as the lone AFCS 1:00 game.
Jaguars (3-7) vs Bills (3-7) CBS
As an aside, if Walt Anderson ever refs another Jaguars game, I may need to jump on the field and kick his ass. I’ve never been arrested, but might as well add it to my bucket list. My guess is I won’t be alone as he’s lucky the field wasn’t stormed last week by infuriated fans carrying torches and pitchforks.
This game is going to sooo exciting, just like the KC/Rams aerial-fest we saw this week. Not sure how the tens of millions watching will be able to contain themselves. I’m sure history will be made for all the primetime viewers to witness. I’m thinking 9-3.
Only posting their last games to make a point and one it’s clear to see what it is.
I wanted to get the ugly out of the way before moving on the injury reports which look better than those outstanding passing charts.
For Jags fans, the big, oh crap, is DJ Chark because he’s the fastest guy on the team and while he’s raw, he’s made gains. However, since Bortles doesn’t need a fast receiver to get downfield for all those deep bombs, he may not be a big missing key.
These two teams are top of the boards in total defense, each have only allowed 14 passing TDs. As far as rushing TD’s, Jags have allowed eight and Buffalo nine. Buffalo is averaging 99 yards to the rush and Jacksonville 109, so these teams are very close.
As far the offenses go, when it comes to the run, the Bills have seven scores to the Jaguars’ four; however, Jax is averaging .2 more yards a carry (woohoo).
Here’s the one and only stat that matters: Buffalo has a grand total of 5 passing TD’s. As anemic as Bortles has looked, he does have 13.
That’s the key for Jax to win.
- Contain the run
- don’t turn the ball over.
- Score on defense
- force Bortles to throw deep or to the outside
- contain the run
- don’t let Bortles run to the outside
It’s tough to get excited about two teams who have pitiful offenses and you hold your breath each time the ball is thrown. I believe the Jags will win because their defense is much better than Buffalo’s offense.
Normally, I have a lot more to write about Jacksonville, but there’s not much to say because it’s obvious the key is for the defense to give a damn. The game lies on them.
Dolphins (5-5) vs Colts (5-5) 4:25 CBS
I don’t like the Dolphins, but we sure need Adam Gase to find a way to win.
The Dolphins are a wreck injury-wise, adding one more reason their work is cut out for them. The Colts real concern is two TE’s that are questionable, since they are Andrew Luck’s favorite targets.
Once again, not posting the full passing charts because Ryan only played a handful of games before getting hurt. In his five games his completion percentage was pretty good, that’s what the Dolphins will need to win.
Obviously, this will have to be a defensive game for Miami in order to give Tannenhill a chance to keep up. I’m not going to use Miami’s passing stats because Asweiler isn’t playing.
Miami only has 3 rushing TD’s compared to Indy’s seven, but some of that is due to the QBing. It’s tough to run if teams can load the box because there’s not a fear of the pass. However, not sure Tannehill is that much of an upgrade. It may be up to Amendola (who’s hurt).
When it comes to stopping the run, Miami is bad. They allow 142 yards a game and are tied for 19th in TD’s given up. Indy is tied for 7th for TD’s and give up 105 yards game.
The grits come down to passing defense. Indy has given up 16 TDs, Miami, 18. That’s the ball game. If Miami’s defense can’t have the game of their season, this is a done deal for Indy. The bad news is Miami ranks down at 29th for sacks while Indy is 16th.
The good news is Indy is down to only two TE’s from the four they had just two weeks ago. This will limit Luck which Miami will need since they’re not great at stopping TE’s.
As far as Miami’s TE’s, Indy isn’t great stopping them, either. In fact they’re down in 26th.
Keys for Miami to win
use their TE’s
force Luck from the pocket
Indy to win
Luck just needs to throw no picks
Yes, simple. On paper, Miami needs to do more than they have in a road game and Indy play the same.
Titans (5-5) vs Texans (7-3) Monday 8:15 ESPN
Don’t like either team and if they tied, I wouldn’t cry. I wish they had Walt Anderson and his crew so the fans could have freak-outs all game.
While Tennessee is very healthy, the same cannot be said of the Texans. Here’s the deal, if the Jags lose, then I’m pulling for the Titans to lose, too. Considering that Marcus Mariota is like a box of chocolates, that could happen.
An injured Mariota (again) behind an OL that also has some injuries may not be a recipe for success. However, Deshaun Watson has his own OL issues that have left him a battered soul, too.
This game could end up in which QB lasts the longest. Neither offense is tearing up the NFL, but Watson has 18 TD’s to Mariota’s 7. For these two, I am posting more charts because there wasn’t a chart for Mariota with all his throws. Odd.
The Titans haven’t won from a passing attack, which is obvious since they have the second worst TD amount and overall are 30th. As far as rushing, they’re mid-pack in TD’s and yards.
When it comes to Houston, they’re tied for second worse with only 4 TD’s and an average of 4 yards. Both QB’s will run, but Mariota is the dangerous one when he does.
On the passing side, Houston is 15th and Tennessee is 31st. Bottom line, it means that these teams are dependent on their defenses which is a great thing for Tennessee who’s third best in not allowing passing TD’s.
The Texans aren’t far behind with only three more. In stopping the run, both teams are aces in only allowing 5 (Houston) and 6.
The keys for both defenses is the same, but feel bad to say, it’s to hit the QB’s since they’re so beat-up.
Keys for Texans:
- Keep Mariota in the pocket
- Rush from the edges
- Throw to the edges
Keys for the Titans:
- Spy on Watson
- Rush him up the middle
- Play man
May both teams lose.