In this AFCS South Week 3 Scouting Report, you’ll find not only the injury reports for each team, but the passing charts for their QB’s. While two weeks is little time to learn their tendencies, you have to start somewhere. Passing charts show air yards which is important. After a few weeks, you can begin to see if there are throws a QB avoids.
It’s important to know that it typically takes defenses four games to get enough game film on offenses, especially those with a new coach or a “new” QB. Based on that, it’s often tougher to see patterns.
Colts (1-1) vs Eagles (1-1) 1:00 FOX
This match-up features two QB’s who have questions surrounding them. Can Wentz return to form quickly? Can Luck push the ball down the field? The question in this game isn’t how Carson Wentz does in his first appearance, it’s how does the Eagles’ defense perform? Specifically the linebackers. Both teams are missing key players, but Philly being so weak at running back means more is put on Wentz.
The Colts injury report doesn’t look promising for a win on the road.
The Eagles aren’t looking quite that healthy, either even with Carson Wentz returning. I’m sure there are cases of QB’s coming back from serious ACL injuries and not missing a beat, but I can’t recall one that didn’t need a couple months to achieve their previous form. This is usually due to being rusty and a lingering fear of re-injury.
Serious questions about their run game can’t be ignored when Wentz really needs to rely on it.
Short passes is the name of Luck’s game. He’s lethal in the area, but also vulnerable if the Eagles play Cover 1 and/or play nickel. The problem is Philly giving up 8.6 per pass and ranked down at 27th for allowing 309 a game. With that said, if Wentz can bring his old self back, that would help.
3.8 yards average rushing and they’re down two RBs and Peters is Questionable. Not great.
The Colts are allowing 4.0 yards a rush. Eagles are only allowing 2.9, if that continues, the game will be on Luck’s dink and dunk game. He’s accurate as hell, but that style needs a run game.
Based on Philly having no answer for all the deep passes Fitzpatrick was lofting, Luck may be just what they need. While the Colts defense seems to have improved since last season, they’re mid-pack vs the pass.
Giants (0-2) vs Texans (0-2) 1:00 FOX
This is one game I’m not looking forward to viewing as neither team is looking good. However, it feels as if Houston is on the verge of getting things going. 3.4 rushing allowed. 5.2 by the Giants. As far as against the pass, the Giants are without Vernon and Apple which could have a big effect on only allowing 164 yards a game (avg), 5.8 per pass.
Houston is allowing 225 passing, 7.7 yards per pass.
At first this list looks bad, but only Webster is ruled out and he has been. Clowney being full, is a big relief for Texan fans.
When it comes to passing, Eli Manning has a pitiful 440 yards, almost half of Fitzpatrick. The Giants are averaging 6.2 yards a passing play. Deshaun Watson is swimming in the same dregs, as well with 447 yards and 7.4. 3-2 TD-INT is killing Houston, but not as bad as Eli being 1-1.
With that said, his O-Line is dreadful and his receivers made some drops, but those short passes with his weapons can’t be ignored. It’s also not helpful that their run game is ranked 28th which is pitiful. Neither team though is racking up rushing TD’s.
As far as Watson, he’s made some poorl throws to go along with some great ones. Inconsistency is killing the offense. If he can help his O-Line a bit (7 sacks), and make better decisions, they can make the leap. Houston is third with rushing yards and that’s key to getting a win – ground NYG down and give Watson less sacks.
Titans (1-1) vs Jaguars (2-0) 1:00 CBS
Oh, Titans. On paper, Jacksonville should beat them 56-0, but when a team seems too easy, there’s a fear of not being prepared. Except this is Doug Marrone’s team and that man sure doesn’t seem like a coach who can’t get his players squared away.
Sounds like Tennessee will once again be starting Blaine Gabbert. I sure hope Jags fans don’t boo him since he didn’t walk away, he was traded because he was constantly hurt. Speaking of hurt…
Since the Titans offense revolved around Derrick Henry, they need to hope he’s 100%; however, backs are a tricky thing. The local boy will no doubt have a lot of fans in the stands and will want to play his heart out. The issue is, the Titans are only averaging 3.4 yards a carry, 216 total yards. Even with Leonard Fournette out last week, Jax has averaged 4.6 for 241 total yards.
The one area that might help Gabbert is having both Jalen Ramsey and DJ Hayden gimpy. However, 117 yards, 5 completions over 10 yards isn’t auspicious. I’m not sure if Matt LeFluer doesn’t trust Gabbert or Blaine is being cautious, but if they want a chance vs Jax, this chart isn’t how to win against them.
While Bortles is averaging 272 yards a game, 7.2 yards, the Titans defense are giving up 9 yards a play. Plus are tied with giving up the longest pass play: 75 yards. Also, QB’s have a 99.3 rating when facing them. For comparison, the Jags are only allowing 6.4 per pass and QB’s have a 86.5 rating.
FYI, Bortles rating is 92, Gabbert’s is 70.9. As such, this match-up favors the Jaguars in both categories and also for rushing as Jax gives up 4.2 per run to the Titans 4.9. 4.6 is what the Jags average per play.
Bottom line is, while anything can happen on any Sunday, new coaches, and back-up QB, it looks bleak. Their one hope is interceptions, they’ve had three so far.